Bayesian elastic net single index quantile regression

Single index model conditional quantile regression is proposed in order to overcome the dimensionality problem in nonparametric quantile regression. In the proposed method, the Bayesian elastic net is suggested for single index quantile regression for estimation and variables selection. The Gaussian process prior is considered for unknown link function and a Gibbs sampler algorithm is adopted for posterior inference. The results of the simulation studies and numerical example indicate that our propose method, BENSIQReg, offers substantial improvements over two existing methods, SIQReg and BSIQReg. The BENSIQReg has consistently show a good convergent property, has the least value of median of mean absolute deviations and smallest standard deviations, compared to the other two methods.     

Partial linear single-index models with additive distortion measurement errors

We study partial linear single-index models (PLSiMs) when the response and the covariates in the parametric part are measured with additive distortion measurement errors. These distortions are modeled by unknown functions of a commonly observable confounding variable. We use the semiparametric profile least-squares method to estimate the parameters in the PLSiMs based on the residuals obtained from the distorted variables and confounding variable. We also employ the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) to select the relevant variables in the PLSiMs. We show that the resulting SCAD estimators are consistent and possess the oracle property. For the non parametric link function, we construct the simultaneous confidence bands and obtain the asymptotic distribution of the maximum absolute deviation between the estimated link function and the true link function. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and a real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

Palestinian-Israeli single mothers accord motherhood a new meaning ‘I would like to teach my children a new way of life … I'm responsible for them now’

Over the last three decades, Palestinian society in Israel has undergone numerous changes, reflected in the rising numbers of families headed by single mothers. This article is based on a study conducted between 2007 and 2011 among 24 divorced, separated, and widowed Palestinian single mothers in Israel. I analyze this emerging family configuration, focusing on these women’s experiences as mothers and on how they accord new meaning to motherhood. My analysis will deal with the diverse ways these women ‘do motherhood’ and negotiate with different familial players. It will extend beyond the discourse on motherhood to shed light on the current changes in power and gender relations taking place in Palestinian-Israeli society.     

人才流动的增智效应对我国酒店业人才开发的启示

人才是酒店资源中最重要的资源,酒店的人才管理兼具投资性大和流动性强的特点,如何进行有效的人才投资、又防止人才过度流失是酒店人力资源开发和管理中的一个重要课题。按照人才流动的增智效应理论,人才的合理流动将带来酒店业的发展;即使显而易见的酒店业之间的人才流失,也会带来酒店人才开发管理中深层次的增智效应,必将有利于提升酒店管理水平和服务质量,并给出积极的应对策略。     

The Intergenerational Continuity of Fathers' Absence in a Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Sample

Fathers' absence is a pattern that shows intergenerational continuity, most notably within disadvantaged populations. The process whereby this pattern is repeated across generations is not well understood. Using data from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project, the authors investigated pathways between fathers' absence in 1 generation and the experience of fathers' absence by their children. The current sample included 386 socioeconomically at‐risk individuals across 2 waves of data collection: (a) when they were children and (b) when they were adults with their own children. Analyses based on structural equation modeling revealed that men whose fathers were absent when they were children were more likely to become absent fathers, and women whose fathers were absent when they were children were more likely to have children with absent partners. Indirect pathways between fathers' absence in 2 generations through aggression, education, and substance abuse were illustrated for women. These findings add to the literature suggesting that fathers' absence during childhood has intergenerational effects.     

Adaptive designs for single‐arm phase II trials in oncology

Clinical phase II trials in oncology are conducted to determine whether the activity of a new anticancer treatment is promising enough to merit further investigation. Two‐stage designs are commonly used for this situation to allow for early termination. Designs proposed in the literature so far have the common drawback that the sample sizes for the two stages have to be specified in the protocol and have to be adhered to strictly during the course of the trial. As a consequence, designs that allow a higher extent of flexibility are desirable. In this article, we propose a new adaptive method that allows an arbitrary modification of the sample size of the second stage using the results of the interim analysis or external information while controlling the type I error rate. If the sample size is not changed during the trial, the proposed design shows very similar characteristics to the optimal two‐stage design proposed by Chang et al. (Biometrics 1987; 43:865–874). However, the new design allows the use of mid‐course information for the planning of the second stage, thus meeting practical requirements when performing clinical phase II trials in oncology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

《我的安东妮亚》“回归主题”的多重分析

在薇拉·凯瑟小说《我的安东妮亚》第四卷结尾处,主人公吉姆.波顿出人意料地离弃了他的恋人安东妮亚,20年后又返回西部大草原看望她。吉姆的这一"离"一"回/归",多年来一直是学术界关注的焦点。许多学者纷纷从各种视角,如女性主义、酷儿理论或生态文学解读吉姆的"回归"。但是,综观国内外学者对该作品的研究,笔者发现他们只是从单一视角去研究分析该作品的"回归主题",因此,本文将从精神分析、文化研究、女性主义和生态批评等视角对该主题进行多重分析。     

社会转型期新底层公众上向流动诉求的困境与出路

鉴于社会转型期新底层公众具有迫切的上向流动诉求,但上向流动渠道亟待畅通。从宏观体制环境、中观社会资源配置、微观个人禀赋因素发挥等维度,系统分析了新底层公众上向流动诉求的困境障碍,建构了在保留户籍基础上的体制改革、在开发新底层公众自身创造力基础上的资源配置、在提升故土文化信心基础上的社会意识认同等畅通渠道的建议。     

邹衍学说的渊源及内容

邹衍是战国时期阴阳家的代表,他的学说主要包括阴阳五行学说、地理学说和五德终始学说,他的思想在自然科学和社会科学方面对后世都产生了巨大影响。